The world was shocked when US forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, just hours after he met with Beijing's special envoy for Latin America. This incident has left a lasting impression, especially considering the envoy's proximity to the US operation.
Maduro, in a display of camaraderie, praised his relationship with China and President Xi Jinping, unaware of the impending military action. The world then witnessed a stark contrast as Maduro, shackled and blindfolded, was transported to a US courtroom, facing charges of narco-conspiracy.
Beijing's reaction was one of outrage, using its propaganda machinery to denounce the US as a rogue cop. With Trump's vow to temporarily control Venezuela's oil reserves, Chinese state media seized the opportunity to highlight US imperialism, where international laws are selectively enforced to serve American interests.
Legal scholars argue that the Venezuela attack likely violates international law. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that no country should act as the world's police or judge.
Dylan Loh, an expert on Chinese foreign policy, believes this incident provides Beijing with moral leverage against US power. However, it also serves as a reminder of US military prowess, which may concern China's leadership.
"This demonstration of American might showcases Trump's ability to act decisively. It's a worrying development for Zhongnanhai," Loh stated.
The economic implications of Maduro's removal are significant for Beijing. China is Venezuela's largest oil buyer, but the relationship is imbalanced, accounting for a mere 4-5% of China's total oil imports. Additionally, there's the question of recovering approximately $12 billion in outstanding loans.
The ongoing US-China rivalry raises the question of its impact on Taiwan. The US strike on Venezuela has sparked debates about whether Beijing could use this as a precedent for its 'reunification' agenda with Taiwan.
"If the US can remove a leader it deems illegitimate, how can it deter China from its ambitions towards Taiwan?" asks Loh.
Many China analysts, however, believe the Venezuela incursion won't materially affect Beijing's long-term goal of controlling Taiwan. They argue that China's foreign policy operates on its own calculus, prioritizing national interests over international law.
Bonnie Glaser, an Indo-Pacific expert, believes Maduro's capture isn't a blueprint for a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Instead, Beijing is employing a range of 'greyzone' tactics to instill despair among Taiwanese citizens, aiming for eventual capitulation.
"Beijing believes time is on their side to achieve reunification without bloodshed," Glaser posted.
Ryan Hass, a former China director on the National Security Council, points out that Beijing has shown little regard for international norms in its coercion of Taiwan. He expects Beijing to demand that the US stop invoking international law in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
"Beijing will request the US to grant them the same great power exemptions to international law that it claims for itself," Hass posted.
As Trump's focus shifts to Greenland, the Venezuela strike may be an early indicator of attacks on the foundation of international law in 2026, following its degradation in 2025 in Gaza, Ukraine, and other regions.
With the two powers selectively choosing which rules apply to them, Beijing may find satisfaction in seeing the US entangled in areas it doesn't wish to engage in, while America's allies grow uneasy about their actions.
